The US Senate Banking Committee allowed April to close without scheduling a CLARITY Act markup, confirming the bill has missed its target window and pushing the legislative path entirely into May with fewer than four working weeks before the Memorial Day recess.
Summary
- The Senate Banking Committee failed to schedule a CLARITY Act markup in April, officially missing the target window after the Kevin Warsh Fed nomination consumed the committee’s calendar.
- With Congress breaking for Memorial Day recess on May 21, the bill now needs to complete a Banking Committee markup, a 60-vote Senate floor vote, and three reconciliation steps in under four weeks.
- Galaxy Research puts passage odds at 50-50 or lower, while TD Cowen is more pessimistic at one-in-three, though Novogratz and Garlinghouse both say the bill still gets done in May.
The CLARITY Act missed its April markup window after the Senate Banking Committee let the month close without scheduling a hearing, with Eleanor Terrett reporting that no notice came from Chairman Tim Scott or Banking Committee Republicans before Friday’s informal cutoff. The absence of any formal announcement has effectively eliminated April from the bill’s legislative calendar and shifted all momentum toward the second week of May as the new target.
CLARITY Act April Deadline Missed as Warsh Hearings Consume Committee Time
The committee’s April calendar was dominated by the confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh, whose blockade by Senator Thom Tillis had created competing pressure on the same senators who are negotiating the CLARITY Act’s final text. As crypto.news reported, with the Warsh confirmation process now resolved following Tillis’s announcement on April 27, the committee’s most pressing competing obligation has been removed. A Banking Committee markup is now expected in the first or second week of May, according to multiple industry and Senate sources. However, analysts have consistently warned that even a successful early May markup may not leave enough operational time to clear all five sequential hurdles before the May 21 Memorial Day recess shuts the legislative window.
The Math Behind the Remaining Time
The bill’s path from a successful Banking Committee markup to a presidential signature requires five sequential steps: a committee vote, a 60-vote Senate floor threshold, reconciliation between the Banking and Agriculture Committee versions, reconciliation with the House text from July 2025, and a presidential signature. Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn has warned that if the markup slips past mid-May, the probability of passage in 2026 will drop sharply. TD Cowen is more pessimistic, putting current passage odds at one-in-three and citing CFTC staffing gaps, prediction market politics, and Iran-related crypto payment concerns as additional hurdles beyond the calendar. Polymarket currently prices passage at approximately 46%, far below the 82% high it reached earlier in the year. As crypto.news documented, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz remains publicly bullish, saying on a podcast this week that “this is going to get done” and that it “probably gets done in May.”
Why the April Slip Matters Even if May Works
The CLARITY Act missing its April target matters beyond the immediate calendar. As crypto.news tracked, each prior deadline the bill has missed, from January through April, has been accompanied by the same pattern of near-final optimism followed by a new source of delay, whether from bank lobbying, stablecoin yield disputes, or now calendar competition from the Fed chair process. The bill has now missed every formal or informal deadline set for it since 2025. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong reversed his January opposition and supports the current text. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has moved his forecast from April to May. The White House, Treasury, and both primary regulatory agencies have all publicly backed the bill. The substance is settled. The only remaining variable is whether the Senate Banking Committee can move the bill before midterm campaign politics permanently consume the legislative floor.
A Senate aide familiar with the negotiations told Terrett that an early May markup remains the target but that the final bill text has not yet been released for the required 48-hour public review period, which must precede any committee vote.
