U.S. President Donald Trump has softened his stance on prediction markets days after voicing concern over their rapid rise.
Summary
- Donald Trump said some experienced participants support prediction markets, softening his earlier opposition.
- He pointed to adoption in other countries, warning the U.S. could fall behind if it does not participate.
Speaking to reporters in Florida on Saturday, Trump acknowledged that some experienced participants support these platforms, even as he maintained a degree of hesitation.
“I don’t know. I know some people who are very smart. They like it,” he said, adding, “They disagree, but they like it.”
He pointed to international adoption as a factor, stating, “A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the cold if we don’t do it.”
Those remarks followed comments made at the White House earlier in the week, where Trump had taken a more critical tone.
Addressing questions around well-timed bets linked to geopolitical events, he said, “Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” before adding that he did not support the concept despite its spread.
“I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is,” he said, describing the environment as “a crazy world.”
Rising activity across platforms has drawn attention to the sector’s growth. Data from Token Terminal showed that Polymarket and Kalshi together recorded $23.6 billion in trading volume in March, setting a monthly high.
Regulatory pressure builds alongside growth
At the same time, legal pressure around prediction markets has intensified across multiple U.S. jurisdictions. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit against New York in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, arguing that federal law grants it exclusive authority over event-based contracts listed on registered exchanges.
“CFTC-registered exchanges have faced an onslaught of state lawsuits seeking to limit Americans’ access to event contracts and undermine the CFTC’s sole regulatory jurisdiction over prediction markets,” said CFTC Chair Michael Selig.
New York has taken a different view, bringing actions against Coinbase and Gemini over alleged violations of state gambling rules, while also targeting aspects of Kalshi’s offerings tied to sports outcomes.
A coalition of 37 states and Washington, D.C. has backed similar arguments in court filings, stating that federal financial law was not designed to permit nationwide sports betting without state oversight.
Wisconsin has expanded that challenge by filing complaints in Dane County against multiple firms, including Crypto.com, Polymarket, and Kalshi, along with distribution partners Coinbase and Robinhood.
Prosecutors argued that users take positions on real-world outcomes with fixed payouts, a structure they say fits the legal definition of wagering under state law.
“Thinly disguising unlawful conduct doesn’t make it lawful,” Attorney General Josh Kaul said.
Parallel enforcement actions have emerged in states such as Nevada, Massachusetts, and Illinois, where regulators have issued bans, lawsuits, or cease-and-desist orders tied to event contracts.
Court filings across these cases describe contracts linked to sports and elections as indistinguishable from betting, while platform operators continue to argue that their products fall under federal commodities law.
Corporate ties have also drawn attention as the sector expands. Donald Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board after investing in the platform in August and later took on a similar role at Kalshi in January 2025.
Meanwhile, Trump Media announced plans in October to launch prediction market products in partnership with Crypto.com through its Truth Social platform. Trump transferred his stake in Trump Media to a trust upon entering office, with Trump Jr. named as the sole trustee.
