Bitcoin is pulling back from the upper boundary of its ascending channel on Powell’s final FOMC day, with a daily MACD bearish crossover now confirmed and price retreating toward key SMA support. This article breaks down what the daily chart signals, where price could head next, and why the Fed transition to incoming Chair Kevin Warsh adds a fresh layer of uncertainty.
Summary
- Bitcoin is trading at $75,834 on April 29, down 0.67% on the session, as a daily MACD bearish crossover confirms momentum is shifting.
- Price has pulled back from the ascending channel’s upper boundary and is now pressing the SMA 20 at $75,685 as immediate support.
- If the SMA 20 fails, the next floor sits at the SMA 50 near $72,082; a confirmed close above $80,000 invalidates the bearish setup.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $75,834 on April 29, down 0.67% on the day, after touching a high of $77,904 before sellers reasserted control heading into the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. The pullback comes as Jerome Powell delivers his final FOMC press conference before his term ends on May 15, and as the daily MACD histogram flips negative for the first time in several weeks, signaling that the momentum driving April’s 21% recovery is beginning to wane.
Daily MACD bearish crossover at descending channel resistance
The daily chart shows Bitcoin navigating two overlapping structures. The ascending channel from the February lows near $59,000, defined by two parallel blue trendlines, remains intact and has framed the entire recovery through April. However, a broader descending channel formed by two red trendlines running from the February highs near $85,000 is capping the macro recovery, with the SMA 200 at $84,423 sitting inside that upper boundary as major overhead resistance.
Price tested the upper region of the ascending channel near $78,000 on April 28, then retreated sharply, producing the current session’s high of $77,904 before sliding to $75,834 at the time of writing. The critical technical development on today’s daily chart is the MACD. The MACD line reads at 1,650.21, the signal line at 1,815.33, and the histogram at -165.13, confirming a bearish crossover on the daily timeframe. Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe said on X that Bitcoin pullbacks ahead of and during FOMC events are typical, but cautioned that a close below $73,000 would signal a deeper correction rather than a routine reset.
Key levels: support, resistance, and price targets
The immediate support is the SMA 20 at $75,685, which price is currently pressing. A daily close below it removes the first dynamic buffer and brings the SMA 50 at $72,082 and the SMA 100 at $72,659 into focus, both of which converge in a tight cluster near the $72,000 to $73,000 zone that analysts identify as the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A confirmed close below $72,000 would break the ascending channel structure and open a retest of the $65,000 to $68,000 range, where heavy on-chain accumulation occurred throughout the Iran-driven correction in Q1 2026.
On the upside, $80,000 remains the primary resistance and the bull-case target that would invalidate the current bearish MACD reading. Above it, the SMA 200 at $84,423 and the upper boundary of the descending red channel represent the macro level bulls must clear for a confirmed structural trend reversal. A confirmed daily close above $80,000 on volume would shift the near-term bias back toward neutral.
ETF flows and derivatives context
According to data tracked by crypto.news, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $89.68 million in net outflows on April 28, breaking an eight-day inflow streak that had totalled $2.43 billion. Bitcoin fell after eight of the last nine FOMC meetings within 48 hours of the decision, per data published by Phemex, with the pattern driven by traders unwinding pre-event long positioning rather than by the rate decision itself. The current setup, where BTC entered the FOMC on a 21% April rally with the Fear and Greed Index near 40, closely mirrors prior setups that produced the sharpest post-meeting declines.
Powell’s exit and the Warsh uncertainty
This meeting carries an additional layer of uncertainty beyond the rate decision. Powell’s tenure ends May 15, with incoming Chair Kevin Warsh expected to preside over the June 16 to 17 FOMC meeting as his first. As crypto.news reported, institutional flows have proven sensitive to shifts in Fed communication tone throughout 2026, with oil prices near $105 per barrel adding further pressure on rate-cut expectations. Warsh’s hawkish reputation relative to Powell could shift the June dot plot in a direction that tightens the liquidity outlook for risk assets, making the 48-hour post-FOMC window on April 30 and May 1 the critical test for whether this pullback stabilises or extends toward $72,000.
If Bitcoin holds the SMA 20 at $75,685 and reclaims $77,500 on a daily close, the ascending channel remains intact and the bearish MACD crossover may prove to be a temporary signal. A close below $72,082 confirms a deeper correction is underway.
