Prediction market traders trimmed the odds of a presidential pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried after his parents renewed their public defense of him in a CNN interview.
Summary
- Polymarket and Kalshi lowered Sam Bankman-Fried pardon odds after his parents defended him on CNN.
- Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried argued Alameda borrowed customer funds but did not misuse them.
- The family appeal challenges claims that FTX was insolvent and customers lacked repayment options altogether.
Polymarket placed the chance of a pardon this year at 11%, while Kalshi showed 9%, both lower than before the March 21 interview. The move was small, but it followed fresh public efforts by Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried to challenge the fraud case and appeal for a different view of their son’s conduct.
Prediction markets in the United States showed a slight decline in the odds of a pardon for Bankman-Fried after the CNN appearance by his parents. Polymarket fell by 2 percentage points and Kalshi dropped by 1 point, leaving the chances in single digits to low teens.
The decline came as the interview brought the case back into public discussion. Traders appeared to respond to the renewed attention, even though neither market showed a major shift. The figures still suggested that a pardon remained unlikely in 2026.
In the interview with Michael Smerconish, Bankman and Fried said they believed the judgment against their son was wrong. Bankman said, “There’s an appeal on the case, but we don’t think it’s fraud.” Both also accepted that Alameda Research borrowed customer funds from FTX, but they argued that those funds were not misused.
Bankman said Alameda “acted like everybody else, putting in money and borrowing money.” He also said “the money was always there” and claimed Alameda had enough backing to cover its positions. Fried said, “All the money, it was there, every penny of it,” while arguing that the assets ended up in the FTX estate during the bankruptcy process.
The parents’ defense has also renewed attention on their own links to FTX. Bankman worked as a paid adviser to the exchange, while Fried was described as a political consultant. During FTX’s bankruptcy process in 2023, the estate sued them in Delaware, seeking to recover funds and property it said were improperly transferred.
The complaint alleged that they discussed receiving a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million luxury property in the Bahamas. It also said Bankman helped sustain a culture of misstatements and poor management inside the company. That case was dismissed without prejudice in February 2025, which means the claims were not permanently closed.
Appeal and pardon effort face political barriers
In February 2026, Fried filed an appeal on behalf of her son. The filing argued that new testimony would challenge three key government claims: that FTX was insolvent on Nov. 11, 2022, that customers had no real prospect of repayment, and that Alameda regularly carried a multi-billion-dollar deficit on FTX.
The family has also tried to frame the case in political terms. Fried said, “Sam’s prosecution was essentially political,” and argued that parts of the Biden administration targeted the crypto industry. Still, public support for a pardon appears limited. Senator Cynthia Lummis told Politico, “I hope the president doesn’t fall for that. […] He hurt a lot of people.”
Trump has also reportedly indicated that he would not pardon Bankman-Fried, leaving betting market traders with little reason to raise the odds.
