Bitcoin price prediction as new ETF-driven cost-basis cycle points to another 60%+ rally in 180 days, but fading ETF inflows, Fed risk, and Strategy’s shrinking safety margin could still break support.
Summary
- Bitcoin price prediction has shifted from four-year halving cycles to a “cost‑basis returns cycle,” with three post‑ETF patterns where BTC breaks ATHs, dumps to ETF cost basis, then rallies 60%+ within ~180 days.
- The latest reset comes as spot ETF inflows fade, the Fed signals only limited cuts, and analysts warn that a BoJ hike plus thin liquidity could still send BTC toward prior support near $80k or even $75k.
- Strategy now holds over 3% of BTC supply via debt‑funded buys, but rising average entry price and a compressed “margin of safety” mean a sharp drawdown or mNAV drop below 1 could force selling into weakness.
Bitcoin price prediction say value of cryptocurrency could rebound to significantly higher levels within the next 180 days, which suggests the cryptocurrency’s traditional four-year cycles have been replaced by a new pattern.
Over the past day BTCUSDT has traded between roughly $87.6k and $90.3k, with price currently just under $90k, implying an intraday move of around 3% peak‑to‑trough and a net gain of about 1–2%.
The arrival of exchange-traded funds tracking Bitcoin’s spot price has altered the digital asset’s behavior, creating what Copper terms the “cost-basis returns cycle,” the firm stated in its analysis.
Bitcoin price prediction has analysts on the fence
“Across 2024/2025, Bitcoin has exhibited the same repeatable pattern: price breaks to new all-time highs, corrects sharply, and then finds support almost perfectly at its ETF investor cost basis before beginning the next expansion,” according to Copper’s report.
The company’s analysis indicates this pattern has occurred three times since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, with each cycle delivering returns exceeding 60 percent.
Some attribute the sharp corrections to institutional investors rebalancing their portfolios once Bitcoin enters price discovery mode, an activity that “transforms Bitcoin’s volatility into realized returns,” according to the firm.
“Institutions are not ‘staking sats’ — in fact, most do not care about sats at all now that Bitcoin is accessible through equities-style ETF shares. They care about risk-adjusted contribution to a portfolio,” the analysis stated.
Financial advisors generally recommend institutions allocate between 2 percent and 5 percent to Bitcoin. Without rebalancing, a 2 percent Bitcoin allocation can drift to 6.2 percent in less than 180 days during these cycles, while a 5 percent allocation approaches double digits, according to Copper.
Fadi Aboualfa, Copper’s head of research, told Cryptonews that Bitcoin is trading near its ETF investor cost basis and the pattern points to a significant move higher in the next 180 days. If cost basis rises as in prior cycles, the resulting premium seen at past peaks produces a much higher target range, he stated.
Other analysts have noted few catalysts currently exist to drive Bitcoin forward. The Federal Reserve’s recent 0.25 percentage point interest rate reduction was largely priced into markets, with policymakers indicating there may be only one cut in 2026.
Data from SoSoValue shows inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs on Wall Street have declined substantially in December and have not compensated for high outflows in November.
Products from BlackRock and Fidelity now hold a significant share of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, meaning sustained outflows could pressure the digital asset’s valuation, according to market observers.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has accumulated 660,625 bitcoins, representing over 3 percent of bitcoin’s total supply. These acquisitions have been largely funded by debt, with the company stating it may be forced to sell if its mNAV, which compares Strategy’s market value to its bitcoin holdings, falls below 1.
Strategy’s continued Bitcoin purchases throughout the bull run have increased the average price paid per coin over the past year, reducing its buffer in the event of a bear market, according to the company’s disclosures.
Amberdata research indicates “the margin of safety has compressed to levels not seen since early 2024.”
“The early money is patient. Deep profits create holders who can weather drawdowns without stress. The late money is nervous. They have investment committees asking questions and redemption pressure from clients who bought near prior peak prices,” according to Amberdata’s analysis.
Amberdata stated that a decline below certain support levels could prove consequential and alter investor psychology while generating negative headlines.
Depending on the reference date, 2025 YTD return for BTC is roughly +30–35%, which looks strong in absolute terms but modest compared with the parabolic leg earlier in the cycle. Several analyses note that BTC has underperformed some traditional assets at points in 2025 (e.g., gold and equities in certain windows), highlighting a maturation in risk‑adjusted returns rather than pure speculative blow‑off.
From a trading perspective, the last 24 hours look like classic range action within a broader consolidation after a strong YTD uptrend: liquidity is decent, intraday volatility is tradable but not extreme, and structurally the market is balancing between defended 80k support and the psychological 100k magnet.
