Bitcoin price faces resistance at $116,000, a high-timeframe confluence zone. Multiple rejections raise concerns that a bull trap could form if price loses momentum and key levels.
Summary
- $116K aligns with major resistance and Fibonacci confluence.
- Failure to hold the Point of Control risks a bull trap.
- $106K acts as critical high-timeframe support if rejection continues.
Bitcoin (BTC) price has surged to the $116,000 level on Tuesday, testing a highly critical resistance zone that combines multiple key technical confluences. While the move has fueled bullish excitement across the market, there are growing warning signs that this level could form the basis of a bull trap, especially as Germany’s AfD party, the nation’s second-largest, has proposed creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve following France’s similar initiative, adding fresh speculative interest around this zone.
Bitcoin price key technical points:
- Major Resistance Zone: $116,000 aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci, VAH, and high-timeframe resistance.
- Price Reaction: Multiple rejections have occurred on lower timeframes, hinting at exhaustion.
- Critical Support: The Point of Control (POC) and $106K support remain crucial to defend.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s approach to $116,000 has produced a series of lower-timeframe rejections, suggesting that bullish momentum is beginning to stall. This region acts as a cluster of technical resistance, with sellers actively defending the upper boundary of the current trading channel.
Price has since corrected slightly, falling back below the value area high and approaching the Point of Control (POC), a key volume-based level that often acts as the mid-range equilibrium point. This is a crucial level for bulls to hold. If Bitcoin fails to sustain above the POC, it would increase the probability of a confirmed bull trap, leading to a deeper correction toward the $106K high-timeframe support zone.
The $106,000 region also aligns with the value area low (VAL), marking a strong structural demand zone. Losing the POC would likely accelerate selling pressure into this support, confirming the bull trap setup that has been building at $116,000.
The broader market structure remains cautiously bullish but increasingly vulnerable. As long as Bitcoin remains below the $116,000 resistance cluster, momentum may continue to fade. The risk of a bull trap becomes more pronounced if volume declines while price attempts to retest this level unsuccessfully.
Alternatively, a decisive reclaim of $116K on strong volume would invalidate the bear thesis and open the door to renewed bullish continuation toward $124K. However, without confirmation, traders should approach this level with caution, the technical evidence currently favors a near-term correction.
What to expect in the coming price action
If Bitcoin loses the Point of Control, price could rotate quickly toward the $106,000 support, forming a larger range-bound structure between $106,000 and $116,000. This would likely result in a prolonged consolidation phase as traders reassess directional bias.
