Solana’s price trades below $130 after losing key high-timeframe support, increasing the risk of a capitulation move toward deeper liquidity below $100.
Summary
- SOL breaks below $130, confirming a bearish structural shift.
- Price remains below the point of control with weak volume bounces.
- Untested liquidity below $100 raises capitulation risk.
Solana (SOL) is showing increasing signs of downside vulnerability as price action slips beneath the critical $130 level on a closing basis. This region previously acted as high-time-frame support, and its loss marks a notable shift in market structure.
With price now trading below key volume-profile levels and buyer response weakening, the probability of a sharper corrective move, potentially a capitulation, is increasing.
Solana price key technical points
- High-time-frame support at $130 has failed, shifting Solana into a bearish structure.
- Value Area Low is being repeatedly tested, but bounces are weak and lack volume follow-through.
- Liquidity rests below $100, increasing the risk of a downside capitulation move if weakness persists.
Solana’s recent price behavior reflects a market under pressure rather than one undergoing healthy consolidation. The loss of the $130 high-time-frame support is particularly significant, as this level had previously served as a key defensive zone for buyers. Its failure on a closing basis suggests that sellers are gaining control and that bullish conviction is fading.
Currently, Solana is retesting the Value Area Low (VAL) of the established trading range. While this level has provided short-term support in recent sessions, the quality of the reactions is concerning. Bounces from this area have been accompanied by low volume, indicating weak demand.
When support holds, but follow-through buying fails to materialize, it often precedes further downside rather than a sustainable reversal, a dynamic echoed as DeepSeek AI outlines price outlooks for XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin, reinforcing broader caution across major altcoins.
Compounding the bearish outlook is Solana’s position relative to the Point of Control (POC). Price remains below this key volume node, meaning the market is trading outside its equilibrium zone.
In such conditions, prices often seek lower-liquidity pockets where stronger reactions may occur. As long as SOL remains below the POC, downside continuation remains the higher-probability scenario.
From a liquidity perspective, the chart reveals a large pool of resting liquidity below the $100 level, near previous swing lows that have not been tested for an extended period. Markets tend to revisit such areas, especially during periods of structural weakness.
The psychological component of these untested lows is important: traders remember these levels, and stops, bids, and resting orders often accumulate there over time.
This sets the stage for a potential capitulation move. Capitulation typically occurs when prolonged weakness gives way to a sharp, accelerated sell-off that clears remaining liquidity and forces late sellers out of positions. In Solana’s case, the combination of lost high-time-frame support, weak volume responses, and untested liquidity below increases the likelihood of such a scenario unfolding, even as Bhutan launches its gold-backed TER token on the Solana network, highlighting the contrast between growing ecosystem developments and near-term technical pressure on price.
Market structure also supports this view. Solana has been forming lower highs while struggling to establish meaningful higher lows, a pattern consistent with a developing downtrend. Without a reclaim of the POC and a strong move back above $130, any short-term bounces are likely to be corrective rather than impulsive.
What to expect in the coming price action
If Solana continues to trade below the Point of Control and fails to reclaim the $130 level in the coming days, the probability of a capitulation move toward the previous swing low below $100 increases significantly. A recovery above these levels would be needed to neutralize the bearish outlook.
