Can crypto sustain momentum in August as macro risks, token unlocks, and investor preferences decide how and where money moves?
Summary
- Crypto markets enter August amid a crowded macro calendar, with jobs data, inflation prints, and Jackson Hole remarks expected to guide liquidity sentiment.
- Token unlocks from Sui, Aptos, and Avalanche could pressure prices, though reduced volumes and changing investor behavior may limit systemic impact.
- FTX’s $1.9B repayment round may influence flows, with outcomes depending on whether creditors reallocate recovered funds into crypto or exit entirely.
- Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin since mid-July, gaining over 40% as capital rotates into altcoins and traders position ahead ofkey upgrades.
Fed expectations drive crypto liquidity
In August 2025, global crypto markets are heading into a period of close observation, with several scheduled events that could shape the short-term path of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other digital assets.
The month opens with the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Aug. 1, a closely watched measure of employment strength that often influences interest rate expectations.
Later, inflation metrics such as the Consumer Price Index on Aug. 12 and the Producer Price Index on Aug. 14 will offer further clues about whether the U.S. economy is cooling or still under pressure.
These signals matter because they feed directly into how investors assess the Federal Reserve’s next moves. If inflation eases and job growth slows, traders may price in higher odds of interest rate cuts, which generally improve liquidity and support crypto assets.
But if the numbers come in hotter than expected, the opposite may occur, with the dollar strengthening and risk assets, including crypto, facing downward pressure.
Another important moment arrives later in the month with the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium from Aug. 21 to 23.
The annual gathering of global central bankers is often where monetary policy signals are clarified. Markets tend to react sharply to the tone and content of the Fed Chair’s remarks during the event.
In recent years, even slight hints of dovishness have pushed crypto prices higher, while hawkish messaging has triggered immediate corrections.
Adding to the uncertainty is the expiration of the 90-day tariff truce between the U.S. and China in early August.
🚨 Trump Tariffs | Full list of revised reciprocal tariff rates that will be applied to countries from today by US.
India – 25%
🔹 EU – 0% to 15% (depending on product)
🔹 China – Already faces high tariffs
🔹 UK – 10%
🔹 Japan – 15%
🔹 South Korea – 15%
🔹 Vietnam – 20%
🔹… pic.twitter.com/hFXsCOXUsr— Truth Turbine (@truth_turbine) August 1, 2025
The outcome of that agreement may affect market sentiment, especially if tensions flare up again. Any escalation could reignite investor demand for perceived safe havens, which in the crypto space often includes stablecoins.
The economic calendar rounds out with more inflation data on Aug. 29, including core PCE and a GDP update, both of which are likely to inform the Fed’s policy stance going into the final quarter of the year.
Sui leads August unlock activity
One factor that could subtly influence market direction in August is the steady stream of scheduled token unlocks.
These events increase the circulating supply of various assets and can affect short-term liquidity, especially if early investors choose to sell.
The largest unlock of the month came from Sui (SUI) on Aug. 1, with tokens worth approx $167 million entering the market. SUI’s price responded by falling from above $4 to around $3.53, slipping past a key technical level.
Similar unlocks are set to follow, including Aptos (APT) on Aug. 12 with over 11 million APT tokens (1.7% of supply, valued at over $50 million), and Avalanche (AVAX) on Aug. 15 with a release worth around $40 million.
Although these supply expansions can trigger price dips, especially when markets are already cautious, the overall pressure appears lower than before.
August’s total unlock volume is projected at $3 billion, a sharp drop from July’s $6.3 billion, reducing the probability of system-wide shocks.
Moreover, the market response to unlocks is becoming more measured. Many projects now use staggered schedules, staking programs, and ecosystem incentives to ease the effect on prices.
At the same time, investor behavior has started to change, with greater emphasis on long-term fundamentals and token utility rather than treating every unlock as a trigger to exit.
In that context, while Sui, Aptos, and Avalanche remain worth watching, their impact on overall market sentiment will likely depend more on macro trends and liquidity conditions than token release mechanics alone.
FTX payouts and legacy impact
Events tied to past market failures continue to shape crypto sentiment, even as new developments take the spotlight.
One such overhang is the ongoing resolution of the FTX bankruptcy. The defunct exchange is preparing its next creditor payout, with Aug. 15 serving as the record date for eligibility.
Around $1.9 billion in assets are expected to be distributed in this round, adding to the $1.2 billion disbursed in February and the $5 billion returned in May.
The third installment was made possible after a court approved a reduction in the disputed claims reserve from $6.5 billion to $4.3 billion, freeing up cash that is now being allocated for distribution.
While the actual payments are scheduled to begin by the end of September, markets are already paying attention.
FTX has been converting crypto holdings into cash as part of its liquidation process, and those sales could influence market liquidity and price levels, especially if large sums are involved.
That said, a large portion of the asset conversion may have already taken place earlier in the year, which could limit the near-term market impact of this particular payout.
Unlike the earlier disbursements, the $1.9 billion involved in this phase is smaller, suggesting a more muted effect on trading volumes or volatility.
What happens after the payout is equally important. Many creditors will receive their funds in fiat or stablecoins, and a portion of that capital could return to crypto markets depending on individual preferences.
Although it is difficult to quantify how much will be reinvested, the possibility adds an uncertain but potentially positive dynamic to overall market flows.
More broadly, the progress in resolving FTX’s liabilities removes a lingering source of anxiety and marks a further step toward institutional cleanup in the sector.
Adoption, conferences, and institutional dialogue
August also brings events that show how crypto infrastructure and adoption efforts are improving, with potential implications for long-term market structure.
Later in the month, Hong Kong will host Bitcoin Asia 2025 on Aug. 28 and 29. The conference follows a sold-out debut in 2024 and is expected to convene participants from across government, financial services, and the crypto industry.
Officials from Hong Kong’s Legislative Council and its Securities and Futures Commission are among the scheduled speakers, suggesting local policymakers’ ongoing engagement with the sector.
The city continues to present itself as a potential regional hub for digital assets, and conferences like these offer a platform to signal policy intent, regulatory posture, and industry openness.
While such gatherings typically do not generate direct price movement, they can influence long-term sentiment, particularly among institutional stakeholders assessing jurisdictional alignment.
Ethereum gains lead in rotation
Market performance in July added a notable layer to crypto’s ongoing relationship with broader asset trends.
Traditional indices such as the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 posted record-breaking momentum, with the Nasdaq hitting 14 all-time highs, the most ever recorded in any July, while the S&P 500 reached 10 new highs during the month.
Historical data suggests that only a handful of years, including 1977 and 1997, have seen similar strength during this period.
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has now logged 15 all-time highs, making 2025 one of its strongest years since the post-pandemic recovery began, second only to 2024’s 57 highs.
The backdrop of strong equity performance has coincided with changing sentiment in the crypto market.
On Jul. 14, BTC reached an all-time high of $123,000 before retreating in the weeks that followed. Since then, attention has increasingly moved toward ETH and selected altcoins.
Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has posted a modest gain of approximately 4%, while Ethereum has surged more than 40% over the same period.
The relative outperformance hints growing interest in ETH’s upcoming upgrades and possible rotation flows as investors reassess valuation gaps between large-cap tokens.
That said, elevated prices across asset classes also raise the bar for what comes next.
History shows that strong Julys often mark a point of overextension, and with August loaded with inflation prints, Fed signals, and unpredictable liquidity shifts, markets may soon be tested on durability rather than speed.
For crypto, this means watching not just prices, but where money is flowing, what narratives are sticking, and how quickly sentiment adjusts to new data. As always, trade wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
